Psychosis: 15% Likelihood of remaining relapse free at 15 years
Clinical Bottom Line
Patients with first episode non-affective functional psychosis have a 15% likelihood of remaining free from relapse over 15 years
Citation
Wiersma, D, Nienhuis, FJ, Slooff, C.J. and Giel R. Natural course of schizophrenic disorders: a 15-year followup of a Dutch incidence cohort. Schizophr.Bull. 24 (1):75-85, 1998.
Clinical Question
In a patient with first episode functional psychosis, what is the likelihood of remaining free from relapse in the long term?
Search Terms
hand search Evidence-Based Mental Health
The Study
Long term follow up of first-contact cases of non-affective functional psychosis from a geographically defined region in the Netherlands. At 6 months, 63% had DSM-IIIR schizophrenia or schizophreniform disorder. Explicit criteria were used for determining relapse. Data collection was standardised although much was retrospective from casenotes and informants.
The Evidence
| Outcome | Time | Measure | Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Relapse-free following remission of first episode | 1 year | 57% | Not calculable |
| 2 years | 45% | Not calculable | |
| 5 years | 70% | Not calculable | |
| 15 years | 15% | 7 to 22% |
Comments
Commentary in Evidence-Based Mental Health includes extra information that was obtained from authors
Appraised By
Geddes, 1998
Expiry Date
2000